|The Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) has the pleasure of inviting you to a seminar on:
Changing Military Doctrines: Implications for Nuclear Stability
Tuesday, 13 March 2012, 13.00-14.30
Danish Institute for International Studies
Strandgade 71, ground floor, 1401 Copenhagen K
In this seminar, Maria Sultan examines the importance of the Indian military’s Cold Start Doctrine (CSD), its implications for Pakistan, and subsequently, a possible Pakistani response based on a theory of Integrated Strategic Equivalence (ISE). This is based on the following assumptions: That the Indian military’s Cold Start Doctrine is revolutionary, for it aims to create a space for limited war not on the basis of multiple assaults inside Pakistani territory in a limited time, but by reducing the space for target selection for an effective deterrence strategy by Pakistan.
The CSD emphasizes for limiting the Pakistani response to only a conventional response and creating a gap for the nuclear response. This is based on the less than 72 hours timeline to initiate a massive all across Pakistan spatial attack, thereby creating the scope for a limited war. This is, however, challenged by the misperception coefficient that may exist in the Pakistani planners to initiate a nuclear attack. The Indian in the CSD catered for this challenge by dissipating the major force structures to the border areas, thereby denying counter force targets to Pakistan and leaving the option of strategic value targets of such nuclear threats to major Indian cities vulnerable. The discrepancy in the threat and response options would create a deterrence challenge for the Pakistani planners once CSD is activated, and the decision to hit Indian cities becomes real. The question is: Can it be done at the start of the war? And if not, then is it to be supplemented by tactical nukes such as Nasar? And if so, then what kind of deterrent posture is required?
Maria Sultan, Director General of the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI), earned a PhD in ‘Pakistan’s Nuclear Arms Control Policy Process’. SASSI is an independent think tank dedicated to promoting peace and stability in South Asia. Maria Sultan is a specialist in South Asian nuclear arms control issues. She was formerly the deputy director of South Asian Strategic Stability Unit at the Bradford Disarmament Research Centre. She has also worked as an assistant editor in the influential English daily The Muslim and is a regular contributor to different national and international dailies and research journals. Sultan has already published extensively in academic journals. She is on the list of visiting faculty member/speaker at prestigious universities and institutions all over the country and is also an advisor to the Pakistani Ministry of Defense.
Cindy Vestergaard, Project Researcher, DIIS
13.10-13.40 Changing Military Doctrines: Implications for
Maria Sultan, Director General, SASSI
13.40-14.00 Coffee Break
The seminar will be held in English.
Participation is free of charge, but registration is required. Please use below online registration form no later than Monday, 12 March 2012 at 12.00 noon.